Settlement or continuing the dispute? How to decide

Often, the opposing party or the court proposes a settlement: you are guaranteed to receive a partial amount, and the dispute is resolved. Is it worth it – or should you continue to fight? A simple calculation in the cockpit will help you decide.

The honest approach: no fabricated chances of winning

No one can seriously claim "you have a 73% chance of winning". Therefore, we do not provide probabilities. Instead, we calculate the threshold: from what probability of success does continuing the dispute mathematically yield a higher expected value than the guaranteed settlement? You make the assessment of whether you are above or below this threshold – you know your case best.

What you enter

1. Claim – what is at stake (the Streitwert (amount in dispute), often pre-filled).
2. Settlement offer – what you would be guaranteed to receive.
3. Cost risk in case of loss (optional) – your own + opposing costs + court costs that you would bear in the event of a defeat (see What does a lawsuit cost? Understanding the cost risk).
4. Enforcement risk – how certain it is that the opposing party can actually pay. A judgment against an insolvent opposing party is worth very little; the more uncertain the enforcement, the more a guaranteed settlement is worth.

What you get

• The break-even threshold as a percentage: below this probability of success, the settlement is the better choice; above it, continuing the dispute is.
• A small table showing the expected value of the dispute at various assumed probabilities of success – for comparison with the guaranteed offer.
• The worst-case scenario: what you stand to lose in the event of a defeat.

Important

This is a simplified calculation and not a prediction. It does not take soft factors into account: how long the proceeding will take, how much energy it will cost, and whether the opposing party will ultimately be able to pay at all (enforcement risk). For larger amounts, it is worth consulting a lawyer.

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